It might be better for the Texas Longhorns that they begin this season ranked #5, instead of #1. Expectations are always extremely high for Texas. So much so that it inevitably creates a "Texas is back!" narrative every time they achieve a big win. And when the Longhorns are inevitably unable to sustain that level of the highest tier, it naturally breeds a "Texas is not actually back" storyline.
The "back" that's referred to is, most likely, 2005 which is the most recent UT national championship season. It was in '05 that Vince Young led the 'Horns to a historic upset over the two time defending champion USC Trojans, who had a roster so loaded, it boasted two Heisman Trophy winners (Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart).
Arch Manning is the most hyped up Texas quarterback since Young, and in 2026, he may just live up to all that hyperbole.
As you already know, Manning started slowly last season. You're also aware that he had some immature moments, but overall enjoyed a very positive learning curve.
In looking at his 2025 stat line- completing 61% of his passes for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdown passes, only 7 interceptions for a passer rating of 144.9. He also had 399 rushing yards, on 4.3 yards per carry. The Citrus Bowl MVP put up great numbers, especially when you consider that this was his first year in a starting role.
But people don't expect great numbers from the nephew of Eli and Peyton Manning; they expect legendary statistics and other-worldy performances. He's like a real life college football Anakin Skywalker- The Chosen One, who "the prophecy states will bring balance to the force."
That's how crazy the hype is surrounding one of the most highly publicized players in recent college football history. He's widely projected to become the top pick in next April's draft.
Young believes he's going to take the next step forward this season.
"I think he’s going to have a really good year because of the way that I’m hearing from the coaching staff about how more mature he is; that’s just setting the tone for me," Young said in an exclusive interview with Ratings. "When I came in and I was more mature and comfortable with what’s going on, then I play better, and I didn’t have to worry about looking over my shoulders and things like that."
Obviously, Manning has all the physical attributes to be the top overall pick next spring. That's simply in his DNA as a Manning. It's the maturity level that will be key to his success this fall.
If the 22-year-old New Orleans native is emotionally and mentally on point, then Texas could make the College Football Playoff after missing out last season.
"To hear that he’s very confident and he’s taking the leadership role and wanting to be the leader of the team, that says a whole lot about him and his teammates and how they gravitate around him," Young added.
"I really feel like he’s gonna have a better year because he’s got weapons over there. He’s got a better O-Line."
It is true, most experts agree on that- he has a much better supporting cast on offense than he did his last two seasons. In the limited action that Manning saw in 2024, he had a completion percentage of 67%, six points higher than what he accomplished last season.
According to Pro Football Focus, his adjusted completion percentage (73 percent) in 2025 placed him only 72nd among 168 eligible QBs.
Manning was asked, during an August 25th media availability, what he wants to improve upon as the new season draws near. He said he wants to be more accurate, and improve his completion percentage.
“Yeah, I want to get our receivers the ball and keep the ball off the ground, away from the defense,” Manning said.
“Just gotta throw a lot and get timing down and match the offense.”
With a full season of experience now under his belt, Manning should be able to improve and reach his goal.
And from there, who knows? Heisman? CFP title? Fulfilling the prophecy as #1 overall pick?
This article originally appeared on Draft Wire: Arch Manning could truly live up to #1 overall pick hype this year
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