Illinois vs. UAB: Can the Illini cover in the season opener?

CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 15: Ca'Lil Valentine #5 of the Illinois Fighting Illini runs the ball during the first half of the NCAA football game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Maryland Terapins at Memorial Stadium on November 15, 2025 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The wait is almost over.

Illinois football opens the 2026 season Thursday night at Memorial Stadium, and while there are plenty of questions surrounding Bret Bielema’s new-look roster, the Illini enter their opener as a massive favorite against UAB.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Illinois is currently a 27.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 54.5 points. The Illini moneyline sits at -7,000, while UAB is a massive +2,000 underdog.

So, what should we expect when the lights come on in Champaign?

The pick: Illinois -27.5

There are certainly reasons to be cautious about laying nearly four touchdowns in a season opener.

Illinois has a new starting quarterback in Katin Houser, a new defensive coordinator in Bobby Hauck and plenty of new pieces throughout the roster. Plus, the offensive line is nearly completely rebuilt.

Still, this feels like a matchup where Illinois’ talent advantage should eventually take over.

UAB is coming off a difficult 2025 season and now has to travel to Champaign to face a team that won 19 games over the last two seasons. The Blazers can make things uncomfortable for parts of the game, but Illinois should have too much depth and athleticism on both sides of the ball, which should make up for any rust or slow starts for a team that is pretty new.

The key will be avoiding that slow start. If Houser and the offense settle in quickly over the first few drives, Illinois should be able to create separation by halftime.

The total: Under 54.5

This is always hard in these cupcake showdowns. Will Illinois run up the score… or just keep it closer than it probably should be?

A 42-14 Illinois victory would send the over cashing, and it’s certainly possible the Illini offense puts up a huge number. But with a new quarterback, new offensive pieces and a defense transitioning to Hauck’s 3-3-5 scheme, expect some early-season growing pains.

Illinois also doesn’t need to score 50-plus points to win this game comfortably.

Final score prediction

Illinois 38, UAB 10

That gives Illinois a 28-point victory to cover the spread, but falls about a touchdown short of the total.

The Illini may not look perfect against UAB, but they don’t need to. It’s just about getting a feel under a big crowd and setting the table for another big season.

A comfortable win, a clean debut for Houser and a defense that shows flashes of what Hauck’s new system can become would be a pretty successful opening night in Champaign.