With Week 1 of the regular season less than two weeks away, the long wait for Rueben Bain Jr.'s debut is almost over.
Ever since Bain was drafted 15th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in April, hype and anticipation for his rookie season have grown exponentially. Bain has done nothing but impress everyone throughout the offseason. He has earned comparisons to an NFL legend, been named to NFL.com's All-Rookie Team, and become the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, all while publicly being praised by his coaches and teammates.
The excitement about Bain over the past several months has been so palpable that a bronze bust in Canton should already be in the works.
Unfortunately, that's not the way it works. While Bain has earned every accolade he has received so far, the standout from Miami is still only a rookie who has yet to play a single snap in a regular-season NFL game.
No matter how great Bain has looked, or can become someday, the expectations for him to immediately take the league by storm and dominate as a rookie are unfair.
Can he become one of the NFL's best pass rushers one day? Absolutely.
Is that going to happen this year? Probably not.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has released his best and worst-case scenarios for 13 first-round defensive rookies this season. While he believes Bain can start his career with a bang, he acknowledges the real possibility that Bain will need more time to become great.
Bain Could Be Great Or Struggle As A RookieZierlein sees a wide range of possibilities for Bain as a rookie. If Bain lives up to the hype right away, Zierlein thinks he can notch double-digit sacks and take home the DROY hardware.
However, Bain may find the NFL tougher to adjust to than many are predicting. Zierlein also sees a scenario where the rookie's struggles come up well short of his skyrocketing expectations.
"Best-case scenario: Bain uses leverage and explosive power to confound both tackles and guards as the Bucs move him around to mismatch weak-link linemen on his way to double-digit sacks and the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
"Worst-case scenario: Offensive tackles show no fear of Bain's ability to beat them around the edge, allowing blockers to focus on his inside counters and bull-rush while limiting his finishes in the pocket to fewer than five.
"Projected stats: 58 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks."
It's obvious that Zierlein believes Bain's rookie campaign will be much closer to the "best-case" scenario. If Bain finishes with the stat line Zierlein has projected, the Bucs (and their fans) will be overjoyed.
If Bain's season resembles the "worst-case" scenario, it will become glaringly obvious that everyone expected too much too soon. It won't mean Bain can't become a Pro Bowl player soon, only that he needs more time to adjust.
Final ThoughtsPersonally, I believe the Bain hype. I expect him to have success as a rookie and agree with Zierlein that he will approach double-digit sacks this season.
Bain should benefit greatly from being surrounded by plenty of other talented defenders. Tampa has quality pass rushers YaYa Diaby, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and David Walker in addition to Bain. Defenses won't be able to pay too much extra attention to the rookie, likely giving him plenty of winnable one-on-one opportunities.
The Bucs will also have Vita Vea and a healthy Calijah Kancey on the interior, taking even more attention away from Bain.
Not only has Bain shown the talent to be great, he is also in a situation that should allow that talent to shine.
My projections for Bain: 49 tackles, 12 for loss, 10.5 sacks
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