LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - SEPTEMBER 5: Isaac Brown #1 of the Louisville Cardinals scores a late touchdown sealing the game against the James Madison Dukes at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium on September 5, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesNobody is perfect. College football, as much as I love it, is now far from perfect. At some level, we love it because of the flaws. It makes us appreciate things more.
But with college football, some imperfections are threatening to harm the game. I don’t like the transfer portal as currently constructed. You probably don’t either. I don’t like guys being in school(s) anywhere from two years to just short of a decade. Six schools in six years? I dont like guys leaving the NFL to go back to college? Don’t get me started on how NIL (which I approve of) just complicates the whole deal.
But the biggest flaw I’m referring to is the playoffs. College football has never really gotten it right. In the early days the national champion was crowned BEFORE the bowl games were played. (It’s true, it’s true - Angle, Kurt)
That was improved later when the NCAA had the decency to let all games be played before we named a champion. The BCS was the answer to the playoff everyone wanted but it was a terrible answer. The NCAA then created a four-team playoff that did nothing but tick off teams ranked five through eight. Now we have a 12 team format that makes little sense. How about this? Use the rankings. Top twelve make it. If it’s all SEC and Big 10 teams so what? I love a good underdog (see North Carolina State in the ‘80’s) but Tulane wasn’t beating anyone in the playoffs last year.
This year, five conference winners, seven at-large bids and Notre Dame (top 12 ranking required) are in play. The Irish have a bid locked up unless they go in the toilet. So that leaves six open spots. The SEC is top heavy (Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU). So is the Big 10 (Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana). Someone may be left out. That’s gonna play out over the course of the season.
Texas, Georgia, Oregon and Ohio State are locks. It’s likely the conference champion comes from two of the four. Two will get at-large bids. Now that leaves four spots available. Someone who is on the outside looking in will crash the playoffs. Let’s figure out who.
Caesar’s Sportsbook has the odds.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 31: TJ Guy #42, Ernest Hausmann #15, Ike Iwunnah #92 and Cameron Brandt #91 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrate after a sack against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the third quarter in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium on December 31, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesMichigan Wolverines preseason #16Odds to make CFP +300
An early test at home versus Oklahoma will set the tone for the season. The final three games (at Oregon, UCLA, at Ohio State) finish the story. Kyle Whittingham steps into a favorable situation talent wise. If anyone can tap the talent that is Bryce Underwood, it’s Whittingham.
If Michigan gets past Oklahoma they will be undefeated when facing a tough two week stretch against Penn State and Indiana in Ann Arbor. Things look better if they win both. It’s an uphill climb for the Wolverines because they’ll lose to Oregon and Ohio State.
Prediction: First team out.
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - NOVEMBER 29: Jacob Stewart #86 of the Louisville Cardinals celebrates a touchdown in the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesLouisville preseason #24Odds to make the CFP +550
Ole Miss on September 6th and SMU on September 19th loom. Louisville must pull the upset against the Rebels. Louisville does have one big advantage going for it. They don’t play Miami in the regular season. An undefeated conference season and a competitive ACC title game with the Hurricanes lands Louisville squarely in the at-large conversation. What the Cardinals need is some blood letting in the Big 10 and the SEC especially. When that happens (guaranteed), Louisville has their destiny in their own hands.
Prediction: At-large berth in an upset.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 20: The USC Trojans walk out of the tunnel before the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 20, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesUSC Trojans preseason #15Odds to make CFP +250
This is a good team with a tough schedule in the middle. Oregon at home on September 26th, at Penn State on October 10th starts the gauntlet. Back-to-back games (bye in the middle) at home vs. Ohio State and at Indiana give us everything we’re going to know about the Trojans’ chances. Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat here, he must rise above the mediocrity setting in. He has a good but not great roster. Names like QB Jayden Maiava and RB Waymond Jordan don’t register nationally. They’re very good don’t get me wrong but…this is USC, very good doesnt cut it.
Prediction: Too much schedule for USC to handle. Two losses and just outside of the CFP.
BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA - SEPTEMBER 28: Aaron Anderson #1 of the LSU Tigers dives for a touchdown during the second quarter against the South Alabama Jaguars at on September 28, 2024 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Gus Stark/University Images via Getty Images}
University Images via Getty ImagesLSU preseason #11Odds to make the CFP +140
LSU spent over $100 million (buyouts included) to get their man. Lane Kiffin needs to deliver immediately. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Clemson at home to start the season should be a win. Ole Miss on September 19th has the country’s attention, as it should. LSU cannot put their eggs in that basket because Texas A&M visits Baton Rouge a week later. Throw in the four game gauntlet of Auburn, Alabama, Texas and Tennessee just for fun. Kiffin did Kiffin things and killed it in the portal, brought in Ed Orgeron (go tigahs!) and brought the electricity back to campus after Brian Kelly flipped the breaker. Questions at receiver and offensive line need to be answered. The defense under Blake Baker will be outstanding. Sam Leavitt needs to continue the portal magic at quarterback for LSU. The offense needs to be great for the Tigers to contend. I personally can’t wait for the Texas game on November 14th. Conference championship implications loading on this one.
Prediction: two losses and an at-large berth. Attrition in the SEC allows LSU to
Advance.
Didn’t go out on a limb here. Football is not basketball on the college level. There are definitely haves and have nots. If you want real Cinderella I suggest Nebraska. Why you ask? They’re +2500 to get to the playoffs. No other reason.
Let’s put the ball down and get the season rolling.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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