For the last several summers I’ve put out extensive 2,500+ word previews for every team in Washington’s conference using my team talent formula. I ran out of time to do that this summer so instead I’m breaking it up into three articles of about that size breaking up the rankings into groups of six. I’m sure that’s a more preferable approach to most out there but my apologies to the true sickos that actually enjoyed over 45,000 words of conference preview content in the middle of their summer. You are my spirit animals.
My rankings are intended to represent the quality of a team’s roster by looking at the numerical inputs of a player’s recruiting ranking, their playing time relative to their years in college, and their on-field performance. I then take those scores and assign credit for each based on position and position ranking on the team. For instance the #1 QB gets 150% of his score assigned towards the final total while the #3 RB gets 25%. That means my totals try to account for depth, particularly at positions that are more prone to heavy rotation. But if you just want to see some stats about the starters, I include the 3 components assigned just to the players that Phil Steele projects as starters for every team. If there’s a major difference between those rankings and the overall ranking then it likely is due to the quality of the depth.
Let’s get on with it.
18. Purdue Boilermakers- 2,025 (#18 offense, #15 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.862 (7th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 573 (17th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 61.1 (18th)
Purdue has been the clear worst team in the conference over the past two seasons and they are right back at the bottom of the team talent rankings this year so it seems like not much has changed. But the gap has likely closed between Purdue and the rest of the bottom. The Boilermakers actually have some pedigree on their roster with a mindset to the portal that has prioritized taking raw recruiting talent over proven production. It’s the opposite approach of their rival Indiana who just won the national title but hey, who am I to criticize?
The offense returns starting QB Ryan Browne so at least there’s continuity but he really struggled last year and it’s not clear the talent around him improved enough to expect much better results. The running back room is improved with a couple guys I like in Texas transfer Jerrick Gibson and Minnesota transfer Fame Ijeboi. But they have the worst offensive line in the conference with 0 players with a career PFF grade of 61+ and are relying on several starters who weren’t very good in their previous stops.
The defense has a chance to improve thanks to a surprisingly sturdy defensive line. The Boilermakers don’t have any of my top 20 ranked DL players but have four between 21 and 50 which should raise the floor for their interior front. No other defensive position ranks inside the top 12 but also nowhere are they in the bottom 2 which would be a huge improvement if it actually plays out that way.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Defensive Line (6th)
Lowest Ranked Position Group: Offensive Line (18th)
Top 5 Players: 1. S Jaden Mangham (76), 2. WR Xavier Townsend (75), 3. RB Jerrick Gibson (74), 4. LT Joey Tanona (73), 5. QB Ryan Browne (69)
17. Illinois Fighting Illini- 2,042 (#14 offense, #18 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.849 (13th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 864 (9th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 65.3 (13th)
This would certainly be a major step back for Illinois if they were to be 17th in the conference this year given they are coming off a 19-7 record over the past two seasons. The coaching infrastructure under Bret Bielema when combined with what looks like a pretty manageable schedule means I expect wins to still be plentiful this season but the roster looks to be a clear step back from last season particularly on defense.
There is pretty good talent at the skill positions. QB Katin Houser comes in from East Carolina where he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt last season and projects as a top half of the conference starter. Jumbo back Kaden Feagin rushed for 500+ yards last year but has moved to tight end to help Illinois keep their most talented players on the field. He ranks as the #2 TE in the conference but my system doesn’t know his stats were put up at a different position. The reason he moved is RB Ca’Lil Valentine returns after picking up 600+ yards on 4.6 YPC last season. There was a lot of turnover though on the offensive line and so we’ll see if they can rebuild that group on the fly with 2 new transfers in plus a 3-star true freshman slotted to start.
The Illinois defense also was decimated in the offseason. Only 4 members of Illinois’ projected defensive 2-deep finished in the top 15 in defensive snaps played for them last year. It isn’t as if Illinois instead added a bunch of veteran transfers to make up for it. The only projected defensive starters added through the portal are Penn DL Carter Janki and Jacksonville State DL Darrell Prater who both are coming up from lower levels where they weren’t superstars to start. That means Illinois is relying on internal development for a bunch of 3-star guys without much experience. It’s an approach that can work but is reliant on a quality coaching staff. New Illinois DC Bobby Hauck (former Montana HC) has his work cut out for him.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Tight End (2nd)
Lowest Ranked Position Group: Linebacker (18th)
Top 5 Players: 1. QB Katin Houser (90), 2. TE Kaden Feagin (87), 3. RB Ca’Lil Valentine (79), 4. WR Collin Dixon (70), 5. CB Matthew Bailey (70)
16. Iowa Hawkeyes- 2,042 (#12 offense, #17 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.838 (16th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 461 (18th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 72.4 (1st)
At this point it feels like Iowa’s place in these rankings is a bit of a running joke. Last year the Hawkeyes finished 16th in my B1G roster rankings before finishing 9-4 with all their losses to teams who were ranked when they played by 5 points or fewer. There appears to be something about the way Iowa rewards seniority and uses the portal that specifically goes against my methodology here. Iowa has the fewest average starts among expected starters but the highest average PFF grade. That certainly suggests this may be a roster filled with players who have played well in limited opportunity and will make this ranking look silly again once they get more snaps.
Offense is always the struggle for Iowa and I don’t see that changing. The offensive line was among the best in the country last year and returns two premium starters which is a nice foundation. The WR room is potentially a strength which is not a sentence I’m used to writing. A pair of FCS transfers provide some hope after each had nearly 800+ yards and 7+ touchdowns last season at lower levels. The flaw is once again quarterback where the room has 174 career offensive snaps. Presumed starter Hank Brown has all but 12 of those to his name but don’t be surprised if we see elite freshman Tradon Bessinger sooner than later.
The defense isn’t showing out on paper but will certainly outperform how it looks right now. Similar to the WR spot there are a ton of FCS transfers who moved up on defense with adds from Elon, Robert Morris, South Dakota State, Holy Cross, North Dakota, and Villanova on this side of the ball. A few foundational pieces in the secondary with Deshaun Lee and Zach Lutmer provide some stability but no returner on the defensive front has more than 250 career snaps so that group is relying entirely on those FCS adds plus internal development. It could certainly work but there’s risk. At least there would be for other coaching staffs.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Wide Receiver (7th)
Lowest Ranked Position Group: Quarterback, Edge Rusher (18th)
Top 5 Players: 1. LT Trevor Lauck (88), 2. CB Deshaun Lee (78), 3. S Zach Lutmer (75), 4. RG Kade Pieper (72), 5. WR Evan James (70)
15. Maryland Terrapins- 2,062 (#17 offense, #14 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.853 (11th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 810 (11th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 63.8 (17th)
The Maryland administration made the decision not to fire Mike Locksley with the hope that putting the buyout money into NIL dollars would provide better results. We’ll see. It doesn’t help that their #2 player in my ratings, ED Zahir Mathis, is already out for the season with an injury which would knock Maryland down a spot or two on its own if I manually adjusted for injury status (I don’t do that because it would require me to know the ins and outs of every single roster and not every coach is honest or forthcoming about player availability).
At least Maryland has a potential star at QB in Malik Washington who started as a true freshman last year and held his own. He comes in as my #7 QB in the conference after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards in his first college action. If he takes a leap then it makes Maryland much more dangerous. The problem is the Terps still haven’t fixed their O-line and it’s my lowest ranked unit at the position group. There’s at least some experience there with three players with 900+ snaps to their name but Maryland is the only school with no OL with a 60+ rating (the Huskies have 5). Some transfers particularly at the WR spot have given Maryland at least solid skill position talent around Malik Washington but I’m skeptical it can all come together with that line.
The defensive front would be legitimately scary if Mathis were still healthy. 5-star recruit Zion Elee is in as a true freshman alongside some other solid pieces but it falls apart without Mathis and the 6 sacks he put up as a freshman. Tackling machine Daniel Wingate is back at linebacker but a really nice secondary from last year is almost all gone and they’ll need some internal development to get up to an average back end of the defense. Put it all together and this looks like a roster with a few really nice pieces but nowhere close to enough depth to get Maryland to be a contender for anything other than a low tier bowl game.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Edge Rusher (7th)
Lowest Ranked Position Group: Offensive Line (18th)
Top 5 Players: 1. QB Malik Washington (90), 2. ED Zahir Mathis (85), 3. RB DeJuan Williams (78), 4. S Messiah Delhomme (74), 5. DL Bryce Jenkins (73)
14. Northwestern Wildcats- 2,081 (#10 offense, #16 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.838 (17th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 796 (12th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 67.9 (6th)
You may not remember it but Northwestern started out 5-2 last year and ended up winning a bowl game 34-7 to finish with a winning record. The Wildcats have been mostly competent over the last decade or so after many decades of complete incompetence throughout their history. Now they bring in Chip Kelly as OC and a roster that didn’t have a ton of recruiting stars coming out of high school but has generally performed well when on the field.
This is the second straight year in which my system is going all-in on Northwestern’s QB addition much to my dismay. Former Michigan State and Oregon State QB Aidan Chiles takes over after he lost his starting job in East Lansing but has the pedigree and plenty of experience including in the Big Ten. They also bring in my system’s highest rated backup QB in the B1G with West Virginia QB Nicco Marchiol who had 7 TD and 4 INT at 7.5 YPA over the last 2 seasons in part-time duty in the Big 12. That depth gives Northwestern the 2nd best QB rating in the conference. I guarantee Northwestern will not have the 2nd best QB play in the conference. But alas, I can’t control my computer except that I literally made the formula but let’s forget about that.
I really like the running back room as they have three players with 600+ career snaps and a 70+ PFF grade who each finish in the top 30 at the position in the conference. TE Alex Honig is in as the #5 TE from UConn and Griffin Wilde is back after an all-conference season last year following his transfer in from South Dakota State. Throw in a couple returning offensive linemen under Chip Kelly’s direction and this could legitimately be a top half of the conference offense.
I have a harder time seeing the vision on defense. Safety Robert Fitzgerald will anchor the back end and edge rusher Michael Kilbane had 5 sacks as a premier pass rusher. Each are in the top 10 among their position in the conference. But the rest of the front 7 is bereft of proven production besides Kilbane and I could easily see teams running the ball down Northwestern’s throat all season.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Quarterback (2nd)
Lowest Ranked Position Group: Cornerback (17th)
Top 5 Players: 1. QB Aidan Chiles (89), 2. RB Gavin Sawchuk (88), 3. ED Michael Kilbane (85), 4. S Robert Fitzgerald (81), 5. QB Nicco Marchiol (79)
13. Michigan State Spartans- 2,098 (#16 offense, #13 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.810 (18th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 1,037 (3rd)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 67.7 (7th)
It’s a pretty clear strategy for Michigan State here trying to reboot the program after a short two years under former Husky OC Jonathan Smith. Pat Fitzgerald has emphasized experience over recruiting pedigree as you can see above by the lowest ranked starters in the conference but the 3rd most snaps. Eight of their 22 projected starters by Phil Steele were either unrated or had a 247 Sports Composite rating below 0.8000 which usually indicates they’re either FCS or low end FBS recruits. More than half of their projected starters are new incoming transfers and they average 1,057 career snaps. That’s about as many players as UW has over that threshold on their entire roster. There are a few power conference additions but the adds also include players from Ferris State, Maine, Montana State, North Dakota State, UConn, and Louisiana Tech.
The offense returns starting QB Alessio Milivojevic who took over from Aidan Chiles by the end of last season and put up solid numbers with 10 TDs against 3 INTs. He’ll be joined in the backfield by Cam Edwards from UConn who has 3 straight seasons of 600+ rush yards at 5+ YPC and should be one of the better new running backs in the conference. Former Kent State speedster Chrishon McCray is still here at WR and they added a few guys who couldn’t crack a starting role for higher rated Midwest power programs to supplement. It’s a remade offensive line with 3 incoming transfers, no former 4-star recruits, and all but one with 1200+ career snaps so experience but not pedigree or continuity.
The defense has some star power with at least one starter returning at most positions. The biggest exception is on the interior of the defensive line where they have about 650 career snaps combined across 8 players led by former Husky commit Ben Roberts who is just 68th in the conference in my rankings. Linebacker is a strength but there will be plenty of tackles for them to make because teams should be able to run it up the gut against this defensive front whenever they want.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Linebacker (8th)
Lowest Ranked Position Group: Defensive Line, Wide Receiver (18th)
Top 5 Players: 1. LB Jordan Hall (86), 2. S Nikai Martinez (79), 3. ED Keahnist Thompson (77), 4. CB Charles Brantley (74), 5. QB Alessio Milivojevic (74)
*****
I’ll be back tomorrow with teams 12 through 7 in the rankings.
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