As Chase Brown gears up for his sixth NFL season, the 26-year-old running back finds himself in a competitive landscape among his peers. With notable names like De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, Omarion Hampton, Derrick Henry, and Jeremiyah Love also vying for attention, the order in which these players are drafted could significantly impact fantasy football rosters this year.
Currently, Brown's average draft position (ADP) is 15.4 according to the PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, where he ranks as the RB7 in the consensus rankings. His projected fantasy points per game stand at 17.06, reflecting a solid expectation for his performance this season.
Despite his promising stats, skepticism remains regarding Day 3 running backs like Brown, who often face uncertainty in job security. Historically, the NFL has seen many late-round picks and undrafted free agents, such as Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, show early promise only to fade away. Nevertheless, Brown has demonstrated consistency, posting fantasy points per game of 15.9 and 16.6 over the past two seasons. His rise can be attributed to significant playing time, particularly when injuries sidelined teammates like Zack Moss, allowing him to take on a larger role.
However, the presence of a capable backup can complicate matters. Last season, when Samaje Perine was healthy, Brown's snap share dipped to 63%, indicating a desire from the coaching staff to utilize a split backfield. Yet, during the final stretch of the season from Weeks 13 to 18, Brown averaged an impressive 22.3 points per game despite Perine's involvement, thanks in part to his ability to find the end zone, scoring eight touchdowns in those five games.
Brown's performance was not just a product of touchdowns; he consistently achieved over 15 fantasy points in five other games without scoring. His target share was noteworthy at 14.5%, and he maintained efficiency with 4.8 yards per touch. Playing in an elite offense led by quarterback Joe Burrow, Brown is positioned as the primary running back, receiving ample opportunities in both the rushing and passing games, even with Perine taking on third-down responsibilities.
Looking ahead to the 2026 season, Brown's value could rise significantly, especially with a healthy Burrow, who has the potential to elevate the entire offense. Last season, despite Burrow's struggles with injuries, Brown managed to finish with more top-24 finishes than some highly touted rookies, demonstrating his capability to perform under pressure.
As the Bengals prepare to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, the matchup presents an exciting opportunity for Brown. The Buccaneers struggled defensively last season, ranking near the bottom in yards allowed per carry after contact. This trend suggests that Brown could exploit the defensive weaknesses, potentially leading to a breakout performance.
With his ability to produce solid fantasy points without needing to reach high rushing yard totals, Brown is set to be a key player for fantasy managers. His combination of scoring ability and consistency makes him a valuable asset, and many are looking to draft him early this season, expecting first-round production from a second-round pick.
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