As the Philadelphia Eagles gear up for the 2026 NFL season, DeVonta Smith finds himself stepping into a pivotal role following the departure of A.J. Brown. With Brown now playing for the New England Patriots, Smith is expected to see an increase in target volume, raising questions about his value in fantasy football leagues.
Smith's average draft position (ADP) is currently around 35.2, placing him in the latter half of the third round, making him a consensus WR16 among analysts. His projected fantasy points per game stand at 14.25, a figure that some believe may be on the low side given his potential for increased usage this season.
Historically, Smith has demonstrated solid performance as a wide receiver. In previous seasons, he averaged 15, 14.2, and 15.3 fantasy points per game, establishing himself as a reliable WR2 even while sharing the field with Brown. With Brown's exit, the Eagles' coaching staff has expressed confidence in Smith's ability to take on the WR1 role, and many analysts share this belief. When given at least eight targets in a game, Smith has averaged an impressive 17.3 fantasy points, and his performance has been particularly strong in games without Brown, where he averaged 16.2 points per game.
Last season, Smith commanded a 24.3% target share along with a 22.2% targets per route run rate, both of which are expected to rise significantly. The Eagles' receiving corps will also feature players like Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon, who is currently nursing hamstring issues. While Wicks is viewed as a rotational WR3, Lemon's development may take time, leaving ample opportunity for Smith to solidify his status as the team's primary receiver.
Concerns about the Eagles' quarterback, Jalen Hurts, have been prevalent, especially after a challenging season. However, Hurts has a proven track record, having led the team to a Super Bowl victory. His ability to support a WR1 like Brown raises optimism about his potential to do the same for Smith. The Eagles' offensive struggles last season have been attributed to former offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, whose departure is expected to bring a fresh perspective to the play-calling this year.
Looking ahead to Week 1, Smith's matchup against the Washington Commanders appears favorable, despite his underwhelming past performances against them. Historically, he has averaged only 43.5 yards per game against Washington, which raises eyebrows given their defensive struggles. However, analysts believe that these numbers may be skewed by variance, and with Smith now firmly established as the top receiver, a breakout performance could be on the horizon.
Smith has consistently reached triple-digit air yards in numerous games, averaging 17.8 PPR points per game in those scenarios. With Brown's absence, the target count for Smith is expected to remain high, and the Eagles' offense is likely to take advantage of deep shots to keep opposing defenses honest.
As the 2026 season approaches, many believe that Smith is primed for his first 1,200-yard season, and he is expected to be on pace to achieve that milestone early in the year. With the Eagles' offense poised for a rebound and Smith stepping into a more prominent role, he is shaping up to be a strong fantasy target, especially in the early rounds of drafts.
Leave a Comment