The Florida State Seminoles kicked off their 2026 football season with a 34-17 victory over the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday night at Doak Campbell Stadium. Despite the win, the Seminoles saw a decline in their position in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), dropping four spots to No. 32 in the latest rankings.
Entering the season ranked No. 28, Florida State's performance against New Mexico State fell short of expectations. The Seminoles were favored heavily, with ESPN's FPI giving them a 97.1% chance of winning the matchup. However, the game was competitive, with FSU only managing to secure a late touchdown to extend their lead and ensure victory, as the Aggies remained within striking distance until the final minutes.
As of now, Florida State holds the No. 32 position in the FPI, a notable drop from its preseason ranking. This decline is significant, especially considering that FSU began the season with a relatively high rating compared to other national rankings. The Seminoles entered the year with a 9.3 FPI rating, placing them fifth among Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) teams, trailing only Miami, Clemson, SMU, and Louisville.
Prior to the season opener, ESPN's FPI projected Florida State to achieve approximately 6.7 wins this season, with a 71% probability of securing at least six victories. Additionally, the Seminoles had a 4.2% chance of winning the ACC and a 9.5% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff. Such projections reflected a degree of optimism following a couple of disappointing seasons for the program.
In their game against New Mexico State, Florida State's inability to dominate the Aggies raised questions about their readiness for the season. The Seminoles were expected to win comfortably, but the close score indicated that there is still work to be done. The late touchdown by Ousmane Kromah was crucial in establishing the final margin, but it highlighted the challenges FSU might face as they progress through the season.
The Seminoles will have a quick opportunity to improve their standing in the FPI when they host the SMU Mustangs on Labor Day for their ACC opener. SMU entered the season ranked No. 24 in the FPI, making this matchup a critical test for Florida State. According to ESPN's matchup predictor, the game is essentially a toss-up, with FSU holding a 48.5% chance of victory.
Although Florida State secured a win to start the season, the drop in the FPI rankings serves as a reminder that the team has much to prove. As they face tougher opponents in the coming weeks, the Seminoles will need to demonstrate their capability to rise in the rankings and fulfill the expectations set for the season.
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