The Florida State Seminoles take on the New Mexico State Aggies to open their 2026 seasons. Last year, Florida State finished 5-7, while New Mexico State went 4-8. Both programs look to get back to bowl eligibility this year, which hasn't happened for either squad since 2023.
Florida State was night and day in the first three games of the year (3-0) compared to the last nine (2-7) in 2025. The Seminoles opened last year with a 31-17 win over #8 Alabama, then climbed as high as #8 themselves in the AP Poll before losing in OT to Virginia. Mike Norvell will entertain the hot seat this season with another season like last year, but for now, Florida State makes a switch at quarterback, welcoming Ashton Daniels (Stanford, Auburn) to town. The Seminoles also added some firepower at running, offensive line, and linebacker to get back in the mix of the ACC.
New Mexico State started off 2025 with a 2-0 record, but went 2-8 down the stretch. New Mexico State's 2026 non-conference schedule will feature road trips to Florida State and Hawaii, plus a home game against Mercyhurst (FCS). This season, the Aggies have more starters back and experience on both sides of the ball. The offensive line has a combined 102 career starts through the FCS and FBS, and the defense improved with transfers and returners on all three levels.
Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.
Game Details and How to Watch Florida State vs New Mexico State:
- Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
- Time: 7:00PM Eastern
- Site: Doak S. Campbell Stadium
- City: Tallahassee, Florida
- TV/Streaming: CW | ESPN+
Game Odds for Florida State vs New Mexico State
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Florida State (-8000), New Mexico State (+2200)
- Spread: Florida State -30.5 (-118)
- Total: 52.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Florida State
Head Coach: Mike Norvell
2025 Record: 5-7 (2-6)
2025 Offensive Points Per Game: 33.0 (22nd)
2025 Defensive Points Per Game: 22.0 (43rd)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 45th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 22nd
The Florida State Seminoles Offense
Mike Norvell hands the keys to quarterback Ashton Daniels this season after moving on from Tommy Castellanos. Daniels started 22 games with Stanford and three with Auburn in his career, plus is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. The Seminoles also added former Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner who recorded over 1,600 rushing yards in the last two seasons. The two will be behind an offensive line expected to take a step forward with a combined 106 starts.
Florida State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ashton Daniels
In 2024 with Stanford, Ashton Daniels threw for 1,700 passing yards and ran for 669. Daniels tallied 10 passing scorers and three rushing touchdowns, but tossed 12 interceptions. Daniels transferred from Stanford after a 3-9 season and started three games with Auburn, which resulted in an 0-3 record. Daniels threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns, plus 89 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground in an OT loss to Vanderbilt. That game showed the ceiling of Daniels. If you look at his Alabama and Kentucky showings, not nearly as glamourous. If Daniels can throw with any type of accuracy, he should be an improvement over Castellanos given the two both do a priority of their damage on the ground.
The Florida State Seminoles Defense
Florida State ranked 43rd with 22.0 points per game allowed last year. In the first three games of the season, the Seminoles were 3-0 and allowed 10.0 points per game. Over the final nine games, which they were 2-7, the Seminoles gave up 26.0 points per game. In five wins, Florida State allowed 10.2 points per game, and in the seven losses, the Seminoles permitted 30.4 points per game.
The group lost eight of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago, but transfer linebacker Chris Jones (Southern Miss, 134 tackles) will make up for a lot of that. Florida State added three transfers in the secondary that are expected to start, so it's clear the Seminoles are spending money to fix their problems.
Florida State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Chris Jones
Chris Jones transfers from Southern Miss where he recorded a team-high 134 tackles, which ranked seventh in the country. Jones also nabbed 3.5 sacks, one interception, and a forced fumble with the Golen Eagles. The junior linebacker had eight double-digit tackle games in 2025, including four of the last five. Jones will come in and immediately become an impact player at Florida State.
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New Mexico State Aggies
Head Coach: Tony Sanchez
2025 Record: 4-8 (2-6)
2025 Offensive Points Per Game: 21.6 (T-109th)
2025 Defensive Points Per Game: 27.5 (88th)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 115th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 109th
The New Mexico State Aggies Offense
New Mexico State was led by Logan Fife last season outside of the final two games. Without Fife, New Mexico State scored 34 and 24 points, which were the second and fourth-most points scored all season for the Aggies. This season, Trey Hedden will be the quarterback after spending two seasons with Furan. Hedden threw for 1,767 yards and 13 touchdowns to 9 interceptions as a true freshman in 2024 and 2,967 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions as a sophomore in 2025. If the offensive line lives up to coach Sanchez' expectations and Hedden gets some ground support, then New Mexico State should take some strides forward this season.
New Mexico State Player To Watch on Offense: WR, TK King
TK King is the only receiver to return to this team with major experience. King finished last season with 41 receptions, 588 yards, 14.3 yards per catch, and three touchdowns, all ranking second on the team. King also missed four games, so he would have led the team in every category, if not for his injury. King is a 5-foot-9 senior that recorded two games of 100-plus yards last year (132, 178) and scored all three touchdowns in his last two games. King will be the No. 1 receiver this year and have a new quarterback.
The New Mexico State Aggies Defense
New Mexico State suffered four losses by seven or fewer points last season, which includes two OT losses. The Aggies defense kept them in more than a few games last year. New Mexico State allowed 14.5 points per game in wins in 2025 compared to 34.1 points per game in their losses. Against #23 Tennessee, New Mexico State allowed Tennessee to score 42 points (0 in the 4Q) and recod 413 yards. The biggest difference in the only P4 game for the Aggies was the rush defense. New Mexico State allowed 194 yards on 39 carries (5.0 ypc).
New Mexico State Player to Watch on Defense: DL Gabe Peterson
Gabe Peterson recorded 55 total tackles in 2023 with 3.5 sacks for New Mexico State. He had so much success in his first season as a full-time starter that he transferred to Utah State with one of his coaches. Peterson didn't find the success due to an injury (6 tackles, 0.5 sack), so Peterson transferred back to New Mexico State. Peterson had 31 tackles and a 0.5 sack last year, but is expected to be a major part of this team's success in the front seven as a senior.
Florida State and New Mexico State Team Stats, Betting Trends
· Florida State went 5-7 ATS last season
· New Mexico State went 6-6 ATS last season
· Florida State went 6-6 ATS last season
· New Mexico State went 5-7 ATS last season
· Florida State went 5-2 ATS as the home team last year
· Florida State went 4-1 on the ML as a home favorite last year
· New Mexico State went 3-3 ATS on the road and as a road underdog last year
· Florida State went 4-3 to the Over as the home team last year
· Florida State went 3-2 to the Over as a home favorite last year
· New Mexico State went 4-2 to the Over on the road and as a road underdog last year
Rotoworld Best Bets
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Florida State to handle New Mexico State:
"While New Mexico State is improved, they are walking into a stadium ready for a routing. Trey Hedden will make his first start with New Mexico State at quarterback and his second start against a P4 team. Last year with Furman, Hedden played Clemson and they lost 45-10. That was the last game he played (179 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), so going to Florida State right away will be tough for a team likely still meshing.
The Seminoles added Ashton Daniels and Quintrevion Wisner, who will be able to run all over the Aggies. Tennessee had 194 yards on the ground against New Mexico State last year and Florida State ranked 11th in the country with 218.7 rushing yards per game. The Seminoles are even better suited for the ground game this year to take advantage of an Aggies rush defense that gave up 165.0 yards per game (90th). It may seem like a trap or a public move, but I like FSU to cover -30.5."
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