As fantasy football enthusiasts gear up for the 2026 NFL season, the importance of making informed draft choices cannot be overstated. Each year, players are selected based on their potential to deliver high returns, but not all selections pan out as expected. Understanding which players may underperform is critical, especially in the early rounds of drafts where the stakes are high. In this analysis, we will identify the most problematic picks in the first four rounds of the upcoming fantasy drafts.
To establish what constitutes a 'bust,' a tiered system was utilized to gauge player performance relative to their draft position. A 'bust' is defined as any player whose production falls short of expectations based on their tier. Historical data from 2021 to 2025 shows a concerning trend: running backs had a bust rate of 35.2%, while wide receivers fared worse at 45.8%. This indicates that selecting a wide receiver in the early rounds is akin to flipping a coin regarding their potential to meet expectations.
In the first round, Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers stands out as a risky pick. Despite being last year’s top running back in terms of points per game, there are significant concerns regarding his efficiency. Over the past three seasons, McCaffrey's rushing success rate has declined, and his average yards before contact have also decreased. Additionally, the 49ers' offensive line has faced challenges, raising questions about McCaffrey's ability to perform at the same level as before.
Moving to the second round, Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles presents another potential pitfall. Although he had a high share of touches in 2025, his efficiency metrics have been troubling. The Eagles' offensive line has been inconsistent, and Barkley’s per-touch performance has not matched his volume. Even if he continues to receive a high number of carries, the risk of underwhelming production remains significant, especially if the Eagles' offense struggles to find its rhythm.
In the third round, Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams is another name to be cautious about. While he has been a key player in the Rams' backfield, his position is becoming increasingly precarious with Blake Corum emerging as a strong contender for carries. Williams has also been prone to fumbles, which could further diminish his role. With the Rams' offensive strategy shifting towards a more pass-heavy approach, Williams may find fewer opportunities to capitalize on scoring chances.
Lastly, Rashee Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs rounds out the list as a fourth-round selection to avoid. Despite initial optimism about his potential, Rice has struggled to develop into a complete receiver. His role has been limited, and his production has not met expectations. As the Chiefs continue to rely heavily on established stars like Travis Kelce, Rice's ability to contribute consistently is in doubt, making him a risky investment in the fantasy draft.
As the 2026 Fantasy Football draft approaches, being aware of these potential busts can help managers make smarter decisions. By avoiding these players in the early rounds, fantasy managers can mitigate risk and increase their chances of building a successful team for the upcoming season.
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