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Marlins vs. Red Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets on August 26

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The Boston Red Sox (73-59) and Miami Marlins (67-66) conclude their three-game interleague series tonight at loanDepot Park, with Boston looking for the sweep

 

Last night’s game was a tightly contested pitchers' duel until they reached extra innings when Boston exploded for four runs in the 11th inning to secure a 7-3 victory. Mickey Gasper accounted for the Sox’ offense early with solo home runs in the second and sixth innings. Boston rookie left-hander Payton Tolle was outstanding early, carrying a no-hitter into the fifth inning. The Marlins finally broke through when Xavier Edwards doubled to open the frame, eventually leading to Brian Navarreto's sacrifice fly that tied the game at 1-1. Miami answered Gasper's second homer immediately in the bottom of the sixth. Heriberto Hernández connected on a solo homer to left field, knotting the score at 2-2. Both bullpens then took over, and neither team could gain separation through the ninth inning.

 

The game became even more dramatic in the 10th. Boston took a 3-2 lead when Connor Wong scored on a passed ball, but Miami answered right back in the bottom half when Navarreto scored on a third-strike wild pitch, tying the game once again. Everything changed in the 11th. Willson Contreras opened the inning with a single, Jahmai Jones drew a walk, and after the bases became loaded, Jarren Duran crushed a grand slam to right-center field. The 412-foot blast broke the game open and gave Boston a commanding 7-3 lead. Alec Gamboa finished off the Marlins in the bottom half for his first major-league victory.

 

With their fifth straight win, the Sox pulled to within 1.5 games of the Yankees in the chase for the top Wild Card spot in the American League. Miami missed an opportunity to gain ground in the National League Wild Card race. They remain four games behind San Diego who sits in that final postseason spot.

 

Boston will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Sonny Gray (16-3, 2.79 ERA). With Garrett Crochet still sidelined, Gray has been the ace of the Red Sox staff. His last start, though, was average at best. The righthander allowed seven hits and four runs over just six innings last Friday against the Giants. Miami counters with Ryan Gusto (0-3, 4.37 ERA). The righthander was excellent in his most recent start. Last Friday he pitched four shutout innings against the Nationals. While Gusto does not have a win this season, the Marlins have won his last three starts and four of his last five starts.

 

Lets dive further into today’s game and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

 

Game Details and How to Watch: Red Sox vs. Marlins

 

  • Date: Wednesday, August 25, 2026
  • Time: 6:40PM EST
  • Site: loanDepot Park
  • City: Miami, FL
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, NESN, Marlins.TV

 

 

Peacock offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.

 

The Latest Odds: Red Sox vs. Marlins

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Boston Red Sox (-129), Miami Marlins (+120)
  • Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+123), Marlins+1.5 (-148)
  • Total: 7.5 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers – Red Sox vs. Marlins for August 26

  • Red Sox: Sonny Gray
    Season Totals: 138.2 IP, 16-3, 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 123K, 36 BB
  • Marlins: Ryan Gusto
    Season Totals: 57.2 IP, 0-3, 4.37 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 51K, 15 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Red Sox vs. Marlins

  • Otto Lopez is 2-5 in his career against Sonny Gray
  • Sonny Gray has struck out 6+ batters in 3 of his last 4 starts
  • Ryan Gusto has struck out 4+ batters in 3 of his last 4 starts
  • Mickey Gasper has hit in 4 straight games (6-8) and in 7 of his last 8 (10-21)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela is riding a modest 5-game hitting streak (8-22)
  • Nick Sogard saw his 7-game hitting streak (12-27) snapped last night (0-4)
  • Otto Lopez went 1-5 last night and has hit safely in 5 of his last 6 games (6-22)
  • Wilyer Abreu is 1-18 over his last 4GP
  • Xavier Edwards has hit safely in 4 straight (5-17) and 10 of his last 11 games (14-43)

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Red Sox vs. Marlins

  • The Marlins are 66-67 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 65-67 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 64 times in Miami’s 133 games this season (64-65-4)
  • The OVER has cashed 60 times in Boston’s 132 games this season (62-66-4)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Red Sox vs. Marlins for August 26

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

 

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Marlins and the Red Sox:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Red Sox on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Red Sox on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

 

 

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)

Source: Yahoo Sports

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