Year after year, NFL teams with high first-round draft picks hope they are selecting a franchise quarterback. The expectation is for the drafted quarterback to lead the organization for the next 10-15 years.
The franchise quarterback should lead the team, be heavily relied upon, and win because of them, not solely with them. However, teams continue drafting quarterbacks in the first round only to be let down.
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The NFL keeps gambling on quarterbacksDec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn ImagesWhy do teams continue reaching for quarterbacks that do not analytically project to be successful NFL players in the first round? Are front offices afraid of being wrong? Do they fear passing on a quarterback in the first round and having that quarterback turn into, at the very least, a Pro Bowler for another organization?
Still, teams waste high first-round picks on quarterbacks that never come close to becoming franchise quarterbacks. Truth be told, no NFL front office has a scientific method for successfully projecting a quarterback prospect at the NFL level.
Since 2016, including this past April’s draft, 39 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Of those quarterbacks, 26 were selected between 2016-2022, and 19 no longer play for the organizations that drafted them.
The seven quarterbacks still with the teams that drafted them are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence.
That means only 26% of first-round quarterbacks drafted between 2016-2022 are still with their original teams. That percentage makes it difficult to justify spending a first-round pick on certain quarterbacks who never projected as future franchise players.
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The numbers expose the problemAug 18, 2018; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Paxton Lynch (12) in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears at Broncos Stadium at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY SportsLooking deeper at the first-round quarterbacks from 2016-2022, the average number of years spent with the organizations that drafted them is 4.5 years. The only year that saw every first-round quarterback last at least six seasons with the organization that drafted them was 2020, which produced Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love.
The most glaring statistic is that of those 26 first-round quarterbacks, only Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and Joe Burrow have started in a Super Bowl. Only Mahomes and Burrow started a Super Bowl for the teams that drafted them, while Carson Wentz was injured during Week 14 of the 2017-18 season and did not play in Super Bowl LII.
It’s hard to justify drafting certain quarterbacks in the first round of drafts. None of these quarterbacks had any business being first-round draft picks:
- Paxton Lynch (2016 – 26th)
- Mitchell Trubisky (2017 – 2nd)
- Josh Rosen (2018 – 10th)
- Dwayne Haskins (2019 – 15th)
- Zach Wilson (2021 – 2nd)
- Trey Lance (2021 – 3rd)
- Justin Fields (2021 – 11th)
- Mac Jones (2021 – 15th)
- Kenny Pickett (2022 – 20th)
- Anthony Richardson (2023 – 4th)
- J.J. McCarthy (2024 – 10th)
There is also an argument to be made that Carolina made a dire mistake by making Bryce Young the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The organizations that drafted these players made crucial mistakes, and a handful spent important draft capital to move up in the draft order. The wiser decision would have been passing on these quarterbacks, letting another organization waste their first-round pick, or hoping they were still available after the first round.
There is no justification for missing on a first-round quarterback who neither has the ideal physical attributes nor graded as a future franchise quarterback.
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