Life is good in Big Ten country…which is practically the entire dang continental United States at this point. Seriously, the league is an 18-school behemoth that stretches from Los Angeles to Piscataway. The wonders of conference realignment!
Anyway, the Big Ten is basking in the glow of producing three straight national champions heading into the 2026 campaign and its sudden surge ahead of the SEC was a big talking point throughout the offseason. Legacy programs in Michigan and Ohio State winning the College Football Playoff in back-to-back years wasn’t that much of a surprise given their statures as blueblood programs. Indiana of all schools producing a perfect 16-0 season last year may legitimately be the most shocking thing that we’ve witnessed in the history of the sport and its supernova-like leap was best exemplified by the 38-3 demolition of Alabama in the Rose Bowl. There’s a strong chance that the league can produce a fourth consecutive national title winner this January and that will come after what should be a dogfight for the league championship.
Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana are the favorites to win the Big Ten Championship Game and it doesn’t come as a surprise considering that they all received first-place votes in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. The Buckeyes should keep things rolling despite losing 11 players to the NFL Draft and will once again have the terror that is Jeremiah Smith snagging targets from Julian Sayin. The Ducks get to reap the benefits of Dante Moore saying hell no to the Jets returning to Eugene, as well as boasting what could be the strongest defensive line in the entire country. And the Hoosiers have once again assembled a strong roster that could carry the program to its third straight appearance in the CFP.
Right below those three is an interesting group of teams that could also push for a spot in Indianapolis if things break their way. This is a do-or-die year for Lincoln Riley at USC and there are big expectations for the program after boosting revenue spending and making personnel moves like poaching Notre Dame general manager Chad Bowden. Michigan is starting fresh with Kyle Whittingham at the helm and his staff will be tasked with boosting the progression of second-year quarterback Bryce Underwood. Penn State is also hitting the reset button with Matt Campbell now in charge and he’s gone with the strategy of importing several of his Iowa State players directly into Happy Valley.
There’s also potential for someone unexpected to get into the B1G title mix late in the season. Can Washington take another step after a sneaky nine-win campaign in 2025? Can Luke Fickell avoid the unemployment line by finally getting things rolling at Wisconsin? Can new UCLA coach Bob Chesney harness Nico Iamaleava’s talent into something special in Year 1? If Indiana could shock the world, why not one of these schools?
2026 Big Ten Championship Odds via FanDuel SportsbookOhio State+185Oregon+270Indiana+290USC+1300Michigan+1600Penn State+1900Washington+3000Iowa+5000Wisconsin+10000UCLA+12500Minnesota+12500Illinois+12500Nebraska+17500Northwestern+40000Maryland+40000Purdue+40000Rutgers+40000Michigan State+40000Big Ten Championship pick: Indiana HoosiersAfter a perfect 16-0 season where it strangled opponents left and right while producing a Heisman Trophy winner, one would be right to assume that Indiana would take a bit of a step back this year. That won’t be the case. In fact, the Hoosiers are leveling up and trying to ensure that they remain a permanent fixture among the Big Ten’s elite.
Curt Cignetti’s national championship team was built on extracting the most out of good, but not yet elite talents, whether it be the players who followed him from James Madison to Bloomington or a productive Cal quarterback that flew under the radar in Fernando Mendoza. Now? They’re swimming with the sharks in talent acquisition, evidenced by them pulling in On3 Sports’ top transfer portal class this offseason. They fortified that with seven four-star prospects in their high school class and crossed off a major milestone by landing the program’s first ever five-star prospect for 2027. It also helps when you’re spending just north of $30 million on your roster and have a rabid donor base that has now been fully activated. IU isn’t going anywhere for a while.
One of those key transfers was former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover, who will step into the gigantic shoes that Mendoza left behind. Hoover put up good numbers as the Horned Frogs starter over the last two seasons, but his turnover issues led to Sonny Dykes publicly sideswiping him during the offseason. Perhaps an upgraded roster will take some of the pressure off his plate and it helps when you’ll have two potential first-round receivers in Charlie Becker, a playmaking star from last year’s title team, and highly-sought after Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh…as long as he keeps his gold cleats locked away. It also helps to have a potential breakout running back in Boston College transfer Turbo Richard to lean on and consensus All-American in Carter Smith protecting your blindside. Meanwhile, IU’s defense should go right back to beating teams with hammers with Tyrique Tucker and Rolijah Hardy among the stars in the front seven while Jamari Sharpe and Penn State transfer A.J. Harris put opposing receivers on islands.
Indiana gets a manageable non-conference slate before opening Big Ten play with Northwestern and Rutgers. The marquee October 17 showdown with Ohio State will be at home and visits to Michigan and Washington poses to be its toughest road games on the slate. In fact, the Hoosiers won’t be leaving the state of Indiana much this season as they managed to pull eight home games this year on top of a potential trip up to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game. As the preseason No. 5 team in SP+, a schedule like this sets up perfectly for the reigning national champs and if they can leap over the Buckeye hurdle midseason, I think they can walk to Indy.
Big Ten Championship sleeper pick: Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State was the biggest disappointment in the entire sport year, going from the preseason No. 2 team in the country to outright pulling the plug on the James Franklin era before Halloween. Enter Matt Campbell, who spent the last decade leading Iowa State to its longest run of sustained success before accepting the PSU job last December. Like other coaches in the transfer portal era, Campbell has gone the route of hitting ‘Command+C’ as part of the transition to his new gig as 24 of his former Iowa State players have followed him to Happy Valley.
And you know what? It might produce immediate results!
Continuity definitely helps when booting things up at a new job and the Penn State Cyclones..sorry, Freudian slip there, Penn State Nittany Lions will have plenty of that when taking the field. Veteran QB Rocco Becht is here working under the same offensive coordinator (Taylor Mouser) and the same quarterback’s coach (Jake Waters) that he had at ISU, along with the same group of weapons like running back Carson Hansen and wideout Brett Eskildsen. Oh, and James Peoples from Ohio State decided to join the party in the backfield as well! Defensively its a similar story as All-Big 12 cornerback Marcus Neal Jr. could make his mark in the Big Ten. The biggest offseason move on that side of the ball was Campbell poaching USC defensive coordinator and Penn State alum D’Anton Lynn, which could end up being a coup intra-conference coup.
What is very notable about Penn State’s schedule this season is that they managed to outright avoid the triumvirate of Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. That’s a pretty good break for a new staff in Year 1! The Nittany Lions will play the annual White Out game against USC on October 10 before hitting the road to face Michigan in the Big House. Clear those two hurdles and the possibility of a trip to Indianapolis will be in play. Don’t sleep on Matt Campbell.
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