Detroit Lions 53-Man Roster: Prediction Heading Into Final Preseason Game

One game.

Then Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have to start making phone calls nobody wants to make.

The Detroit Lions close the preseason Saturday against the Indianapolis Colts, and less than 24 hours later, the roster has to be down to 53 players. The NFL’s official calendar sets the deadline for 6 p.m. ET Sunday, while also allowing teams to designate up to two players placed on reserve lists during cutdown for a future return. NFL roster cutdown rules

Most of Detroit’s roster is already decided.

The last six or seven spots are where things get ugly.

Saturday still represents one final audition for the Lions’ roster bubble, particularly at backup quarterback, receiver, defensive line and nickel.

Here is my latest prediction.

Jared Goff
Josh Dobbs

Cut: Luke Altmyer

This is one of the toughest calls on the roster.

Altmyer has done enough this summer to turn what once looked like a developmental season into a legitimate battle with Dobbs for the QB2 job.

I’m still going with Dobbs.

Detroit has Super Bowl aspirations, and experience matters when you’re talking about the player who would have to replace Goff without warning.

Could Altmyer change my mind Saturday?

Absolutely.

Prediction: Goff, Dobbs

Jahmyr Gibbs
Isiah Pacheco
Sione Vaki
Jacob Saylors

This group feels relatively straightforward.

Gibbs and Pacheco are obvious. Vaki’s special-teams value keeps him safe.

Saylors has done the rest himself, leading Detroit with 87 rushing yards on 14 preseason carries entering Saturday.

The recent back injury to Pacheco only strengthens the case for keeping four.

Prediction: Gibbs, Pacheco, Vaki, Saylors

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jameson Williams
Isaac TeSlaa
Greg Dortch
Tay Martin

Tough cut: Dominic Lovett

Martin might be one of the best stories of Detroit’s camp.

He entered the summer surrounded by receivers fighting for scraps behind St. Brown, Williams and TeSlaa. He leaves it with a legitimate chance to make the team.

Martin’s combination of offensive improvement and special-teams work has helped him separate himself in the WR5 race.

Dortch’s return ability gives him an important role.

I’m stopping at five.

Prediction: St. Brown, Williams, TeSlaa, Dortch, Martin

Sam LaPorta
Brock Wright
Tyler Conklin

Tough cut: Jackson Meeks

This one hurts.

Meeks has done just about everything a bubble player can do. He has shown receiving ability, embraced the conversion to tight end and contributed on special teams.

I just can’t find the chair.

Keeping Meeks means stealing a spot from somewhere else, and Detroit has too many needs in the secondary and along the offensive line to justify TE4.

That does not mean Meeks isn’t good enough.

Sometimes roster math wins.

Prediction: LaPorta, Wright, Conklin

Penei Sewell
Christian Mahogany
Juice Scruggs
Tate Ratledge
Blake Miller
Larry Borom
Miles Frazier
Ben Bartch
Seth McLaughlin

IR/designated for return: Cade Mays

Detroit’s projected starting five appears settled: Sewell, Mahogany, Scruggs, Ratledge and Miller.

The depth is considerably murkier.

Scruggs has taken control of the temporary starting-center job while Mays recovers.

I’m keeping McLaughlin despite an uneven summer because somebody has to provide another legitimate center option. Borom and Frazier offer valuable tackle flexibility, while Bartch provides experienced interior depth.

I would not become particularly attached to No. 8 or No. 9 here.

Detroit could easily find an offensive lineman on waivers Sunday night.

Prediction: Sewell, Mahogany, Scruggs, Ratledge, Miller, Borom, Frazier, Bartch, McLaughlin

Aidan Hutchinson
D.J. Wonnum
Derrick Moore
Ahmed Hassanein
Alim McNeill
Tyleik Williams
Levi Onwuzurike
Tyler Lacy
Skyler Gill-Howard
Chris Smith

This may be the deepest position group on the roster.

It is also where Detroit could lose a good football player.

Gill-Howard played himself onto this team. Hassanein stays. Moore isn’t going anywhere. Hutchinson, Wonnum, McNeill, Williams and Lacy are obvious.

That leaves players such as Mekhi Wingo, Ben Stille, Anthony Lucas and Eric O’Neill staring directly at the numbers game.

I could make an argument for several of them.

That’s the problem.

Ten is already a lot.

Prediction: Hutchinson, Wonnum, Moore, Hassanein, McNeill, Williams, Onwuzurike, Lacy, Gill-Howard, Smith

Jack Campbell
Derrick Barnes
Devin White
Malcolm Rodriguez
Trevor Nowaske
Jimmy Rolder

The first five are relatively easy.

Rolder is the gamble.

Detroit invested a fourth-round pick in him, and I’m not ready to stash him on injured reserve and sacrifice another month of developmental practice time unless his hamstring forces the issue.

Damone Clark is already on injured reserve, while veterans Troy Reeder and Joe Bachie give Detroit realistic practice-squad or emergency options if they clear.

Prediction: Campbell, Barnes, White, Rodriguez, Nowaske, Rolder

D.J. Reed
Rock Ya-Sin
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Keith Abney II
Roger McCreary
Khalil Dorsey
Nick Whiteside

Yes.

Seven.

Normally, I’d be looking to trim this down.

Not this year.

Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are expected to begin the regular season unavailable, Christian Izien is dealing with an injury, and Detroit intends to play a lot of nickel defense.

Abney has gone from rookie developmental piece to someone legitimately pushing for Detroit’s nickel job.

McCreary has too much experience and has played too well this preseason for me to cut him.

Dorsey’s special-teams value matters.

Whiteside has had too good a camp to ignore.

Seven corners sounds excessive right up until Detroit needs all seven.

Prediction: Reed, Ya-Sin, Rakestraw, Abney, McCreary, Dorsey, Whiteside

Avonte Maddox
Chuck Clark
Christian Izien
Thomas Harper

Reserve/PUP: Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph

This section changes dramatically once Branch and Joseph return.

Until then, Detroit needs bodies.

Clark brings veteran stability. Maddox has versatility. Izien can work at safety or nickel. Harper has earned his place as a dependable reserve.

Dan Jackson is probably my toughest defensive cut.

If Detroit decides one of Branch or Joseph is close enough to activate rather than leave on PUP, everything changes.

For now, I’m planning on both opening the season on reserve/PUP.

Prediction: Maddox, Clark, Izien, Harper

K Jake Bates
P Jack Fox
LS Hogan Hatten

Finally, a section that doesn’t require a spreadsheet, three cups of coffee and an argument.

They’re in.

Prediction: Bates, Fox, Hatten

QB (2): Jared Goff, Josh Dobbs

RB (4): Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco, Sione Vaki, Jacob Saylors

WR (5): Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, Greg Dortch, Tay Martin

TE (3): Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, Tyler Conklin

OL (9): Penei Sewell, Christian Mahogany, Juice Scruggs, Tate Ratledge, Blake Miller, Larry Borom, Miles Frazier, Ben Bartch, Seth McLaughlin

DL/EDGE (10): Aidan Hutchinson, D.J. Wonnum, Derrick Moore, Ahmed Hassanein, Alim McNeill, Tyleik Williams, Levi Onwuzurike, Tyler Lacy, Skyler Gill-Howard, Chris Smith

LB (6): Jack Campbell, Derrick Barnes, Devin White, Malcolm Rodriguez, Trevor Nowaske, Jimmy Rolder

CB (7): D.J. Reed, Rock Ya-Sin, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Keith Abney II, Roger McCreary, Khalil Dorsey, Nick Whiteside

S (4): Avonte Maddox, Chuck Clark, Christian Izien, Thomas Harper

Specialists (3): Jake Bates, Jack Fox, Hogan Hatten

TOTAL: 53

If I’m wrong Sunday, these are the names most likely to make me look stupid:

Luke Altmyer
Jackson Meeks
Dominic Lovett
Gus Hartwig
Ben Stille
Mekhi Wingo
Anthony Lucas
Eric O’Neill
Troy Reeder
Joe Bachie
Dan Jackson

And remember one important detail.

The initial 53 is exactly that.

Initial.

Holmes has never treated roster cutdown like the finish line. If another team releases an offensive lineman, defensive back or quarterback Detroit likes better than its 52nd or 53rd player, the roster can change almost immediately.

So this is the prediction.

Just don’t print it in permanent ink quite yet.