The USC Trojans enter the 2026 college football season with plenty of questions surrounding just how far this team can go. Among the biggest—and most polarizing—is whether or not they have what it takes to make a legitimate run through the College Football Playoff.
The Trojans have the talent and opportunity to put themselves in position, but getting there and capitalizing on it once they arrive are two very different challenges.
So, just how realistic is a College Football Playoff run for USC in 2026?
What Are USC’s Chances Of Making It Into The College Football Playoff?It will take a lot against the odds for USC to make the College Football Playoff, but beyond the doubters, there are still almost more analysts than not who see the possibility.
Stewart Mandel of The Athletic is among those who have USC pinned as a legitimate CFP contender.
“[Lincoln] Riley has a talented veteran QB (Jayden Maiava), a strong O-line and now mad scientist Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator,” Mandel wrote. “The schedule is rough, but they just need to beat one of Oregon or Ohio State at home and avoid one of their recent road flops against an inferior foe.”
USC’s 2026 Season Outlook And What To KnowRegardless of where one stands on whether or not USC will ultimately make it into the CFP, one thing that is almost for certain is that it’s something the Trojans must accomplish in order for head coach Lincoln Riley to keep his job.
College football analyst Josh Pate shares that sentiment.
“It is playoff or bust,” Pate said. “No one disputes it, by the way… (Lincoln Riley) has spoken in the way you would speak if you understood it was playoffs or bust. They’re five years in. This is totally fair as a level of expectation if you’re a USC fan.”
Considering that Riley still hasn’t topped the performance of his first season at USC — which still had its fair share of issues down the stretch — the pressure is on in 2026 with the Trojans failing to reach a bowl game in 2024 and beat just a single ranked team the following year.
To say that falls short of the standard is practically an understatement.
The Case For USC Making The College Football Playoff
One of USC’s best attributes is quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has shown the potential to be a top-five quarterback this season. Maiava has shown the ability to be a real force both through the air and on the ground, finishing out last season with 3,431 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and just eight interceptions within an Air Raid offense. In the rushing game, he added six scores.
If Maiava continues down this path and is able to build upon that, he could quickly find himself in a serious conversation for the Heisman Trophy — something he’s already been a part of during the offseason.
In addition to Maiava’s talents — and something that helps him and the team as well — USC enters the season with experience, returning 14 starters. On the defensive side of the ball, despite some severe shortcomings last year, there’s a lot of optimism surrounding what former TCU head coach Gary Patterson can do after replacing ex-USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
A lot looks good on paper, but whether it all comes together is up for debate.
The Case Against USC Making The College Football Playoff
USC faces a brutal schedule — that much is plain to see. It’s almost key for the Trojans to finish out 10-2, though 9-3 seems like the more likely record. That’s still a solid season for any team, but if two of those losses come against highly ranked teams, USC could find itself on the outside looking in by just a hair.
And that’s very possible when USC has to face a gauntlet that includes matchups against Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State.
Beyond the schedule alone, while the offense has a lot of firepower, complementary football is a must. And given the weaknesses the defense has shown and the questions surrounding it heading into the season, whether they can do that remains to be seen.
Patterson will have to prove he has what it takes to repair a defense that gave up an average of 143.2 rushing yards and 207.5 passing yards to opponents in 2025, and the unit will have to cut down on penalties after averaging 5.7 penalties per game.
If the Trojans can survive a schedule like the one they have and come out on the right side, it would make a huge statement and create a ton of opportunity in their chances of making the CFP. Doing it well would give them the confidence to survive and reach a national championship appearance, restoring their former glory.
It will be interesting to see how things ultimately pan out when the Trojans open the season against San Jose State on Aug. 29. That Week 0 kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
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